The measure has two components. 20.7 million over four years to build up an annual actuarial valuation of the lifetime liability of Australia’s welfare system from 2015. This valuation will identify groups of people most at risk of long-term reliance on income support. 13.0 million over two years to aid data collection needed for actuarial assessments. The introduction of an investment approach was one of the suggestions of the overview of Australia’s welfare system, A New System for Better Employment and Social Outcomes (the McClure Review).
The investment approach to reform was originally produced by the brand-new Zealand Government in response to an assessment on welfare dependency conducted by the Welfare Working Group, an independent group appointed by the brand-new Zealand Government. The Government specifically asked the Working Group to check out the insurance industry for ideas on reform. What is an investment approach to welfare reform? The first rung on the ladder in the approach is an actuarial valuation that quotes the ‘future responsibility’ associated with current income support claims.
Policymakers then identify interventions to lessen the future liability and prioritize these interventions by their expected return on investment (the total amount they save in accordance with their cost). Policymakers may use periodic valuations into the future liability to measure progress. The idea of using actuarial assessment to estimate a government’s future liability (or ‘ahead liability’) originates from the insurance industry.
The New Zealand Government has commissioned four actuarial valuations (in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014) from Australian actuarial consultants Taylor Fry. The valuations try to isolate the changes in responsibility that result from factors that are under the program managers’ control and statement significant progress consequently of the Government’s recent welfare reforms. Taylor Fry’s latest valuation reviews especially strong results for just two groups targeted by government-single youth and parents. The greatest effect on the future liability has result from single parents. The valuation statement suggests that active case management improved the impact of new part-time work obligations for single parents with school-aged children.
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For example, if individuals who are obese die previously, increased rates of weight problems could reduce health costs. If health policymakers relied with an investment approach designed to reduce future health costs, they might decide to do little or nothing at all to discourage weight problems. There is some risk of an investment model could have perverse effects if applied in Australia.
For example, some highly successful interventions could be eliminated by the investment approach because the benefits they provide flow to program individuals and the broader community rather than to the Treasury. Others could be ruled out because cost savings accrue to other Australian Government portfolios or even to condition or territory government authorities (for example, cost savings due to reductions in homelessness or criminal offense). Based on the brand new Zealand experience, the biggest comes back on investment will probably result from applying work requirements to groups who have not been at the mercy of activity tests before.
